Center for Economic Analysis

2027-2028 Michigan Economic Outlook

Updated August 31, 2026

As Southeast Michigan’s industrial and commercial hub, the Detroit MSA remains the epicenter of ongoing structural shifts in high-value durable manufacturing. Real GDP is projected to reach $298.4 billion by 2028, while nominal GDP grows to $400.0 billion. Nominal personal income will expand to $338.8 billion, with per capita personal income increasing to $76,748. Detroit maintains an income premium over the statewide median, though its relative per capita income ratio dips to 85% of the national average by 2028.

Total nonfarm employment is projected to reach 2.05 million by 2028. Manufacturing employment contracts from 255.5 thousand in 2023 to 233.6 thousand positions in 2028. Motor vehicle manufacturing undergoes targeted reductions, declining to 34.4 thousand jobs. This contraction is acutely visible on the factory floor, with automakers like General Motors recalibrating production at EV facilities like Factory Zero and prioritizing high-margin ICE production amidst multibillion-dollar EV writedowns. Corporate and administrative consolidation also continues, driven by cost discipline and AI integration. Conversely, education and health services expand significantly, rising from 319.1 thousand jobs in 2023 to 352.8 thousand by 2028. The regional unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.8%.

Updated August 31, 2026