Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability

Giant pandas have long served as a symbol of global conservation success. But a new study led by researchers at Michigan State University (MSU) suggests that protecting species in a rapidly changing climate requires more than celebrating past achievements—it requires ensuring that today's conservation strategies will still work tomorrow.

The study “A framework for effective long-term conservation in a changing climate” published in Ecological Indicators introduces a new decision-support framework designed to help conservation practitioners evaluate whether existing conservation strategies are likely to remain effective under future climate conditions. The framework, called the Longevity of Existing Conservation Strategies (LECS) framework, aims to reduce climate-change maladaptation and help conservation managers make more informed long-term decisions.

“Many conservation strategies were developed under the assumption of a relatively stable climate,” said Julie A. Winkler, professor emeritus in MSU’s Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences and co-lead author of the study. “As climate change accelerates, we need tools that help us evaluate whether those strategies will continue to support species and ecosystems in the decades ahead.”

From climate-smart conservation to climate-ready conservation

Protected areas, species reintroductions, habitat restoration, and other conservation measures have helped safeguard biodiversity around the world. Yet many of these efforts were designed without explicitly accounting for future climate change. As temperatures rise and habitats shift, conservation strategies that are effective today may become less effective—or even counterproductive—in the future.

To address this challenge, the researchers developed the LECS framework around the concept of climate change refugia—places expected to remain suitable for species despite changing climate conditions. The framework provides a systematic process for evaluating whether current conservation investments are likely to continue supporting species in the future and identifying when strategies should be modified, repurposed, or phased out.

The framework includes four major steps:

1. Select an existing conservation strategy for evaluation.
2. Project future distributions of climate-change refugia.
3. Make management decisions based on projected outcomes and uncertainties.
4. Continue monitoring and updating assessments as new information becomes available.

Giant pandas as a window into a broader challenge

To demonstrate the framework’s utility, the researchers applied it to two major giant panda conservation initiatives: the reintroduction of captive-bred pandas into portions of their historical range and the management of China’s Giant Panda National Park.

Because giant pandas depend almost entirely on bamboo, the team evaluated whether future climate conditions will continue to support a diverse and seasonally available bamboo food supply. Using climate projections for 2061–2080 under a high-emissions scenario, the researchers assessed where suitable bamboo habitat is likely to persist and where new climate refugia may emerge.

Their findings suggest that some proposed panda reintroduction sites outside the current panda range may only provide short-term conservation benefits, while portions of the Giant Panda National Park are likely to remain important climate refugia for bamboo and panda populations. The study also highlights areas where proactive management will be needed to maintain long-term conservation effectiveness.

“Giant pandas provide an ideal case study because their survival depends so closely on the availability of bamboo,” said Andrés Viña, co-lead author and researcher in MSU’s Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability. “But the broader lesson extends far beyond pandas. Conservation strategies everywhere need to be evaluated through the lens of future climate conditions.”

A framework with global relevance

Although demonstrated using giant panda conservation, the researchers emphasize that the LECS framework can be applied to conservation strategies around the world.

“The question is no longer simply whether a conservation strategy works today,” said Jianguo ‘Jack’ Liu, Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability and director of MSU’s Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability as well as University Distinguished Professor of the MSU’s Department of Fisheries and Wildlife; Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program; and Environmental Science and Policy Program. “It is essential to know whether it will continue to work under the environmental conditions of the future in a metacoupled world.”

The authors argue that evaluating the long-term effectiveness of conservation strategies should become a routine component of conservation practice. Doing so can help ensure that limited conservation resources are directed toward actions that remain effective under future conditions and avoid investments that may inadvertently increase vulnerability to climate change.

By helping conservation managers anticipate change rather than react to it, the LECS framework offers a pathway toward more adaptive, climate-resilient conservation.

The study was led by Ying Tang and Julie A. Winkler and involved researchers from Michigan State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Stanford University, Trinity College Dublin (Ireland), Fudan University (China), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China West Normal University, Qinghai Normal University (China), Tianshui Normal University (China) and Shaanxi Forestry Department (China).