Forecasting insect activity by noting plant development and degree days
Predict insect activity by watching plant development and checking the accumulation of degree days. Here’s how.
At the Master Gardener conference in Grand Rapids earlier this week, several Master Gardeners asked me to print a table of insect events correlated with degree days and plant phenology. Unfortunately, we have a nice set of events for spring and early summer, but not much after July 1. Still, you will find the table below as promised. Notice that we are now approaching peak activity for European chafer, which follows catalpa bloom. The adult beetles will be flying at dusk for the next two weeks in the mid-Michigan area. Below is a review of the plant phenology and degree day concept, followed by a table of insect and plant events.
Scouting for vulnerable stages of insect pests of trees, shrubs and perennials is much easier if you know when to look for them. One of the best ways to predict insect activity is by plant development and degree days. The best set of observations we have for Michigan was made by Dan Herms over a five-year period when he was at Dow Gardens in Midland. Phenology is the study of biological events in relation to weather. Plant development can be tied to insect development. Dan Herms uses full bloom (as shown in table 1) of different kinds of trees and shrubs as a biological calendar to predict when key insects pests are active. Bloom time of plants are good indicators of insect development because plants bloom earlier in a warm spring and bloom later in a cold spring. Likewise, insects emerge earlier in a warm spring and later in a cold spring.
Another way to predict insect events is to keep track of or look-up the degree day accumulation in your area and compare it with the table below. During a five-year period, euonymus scale crawlers emerged each year when the degree day accumulation (base 50) ranged from 517 to 678 (average 575). Degree day accumulation is a way to keep track of accumulated heat units each day of the year, starting March 1. This has proven to be a reliable indicator of when plants bloom and when insects are active. Notice that in Table 1, the degree days are listed as “DD50.” The 50 refers to the base temperature used to calculate the degree days. Fifty degrees Fahrenheit is often used as a general base temperature for insects because most insects do not develop or grow when the temperature is below 50°F. Anybody can calculate degree days if they set out a maximum-minimum thermometer to take daily readings or take the time to write down the maximum and minimum temperature from the newspaper each day. Here is how you do it:
Maximum Temperature + Minimum Temperature
DD50 = 2 - 50
So, for example, if the high today was 80 and the low 60, the degree day accumulation for today would be (80 + 60)/2 - 50 = 20. Notice that for most days in April and early May, there is no degree day accumulation. For example, the high today as I am writing this is 55 and the low 45, so (55 + 45)/2 – 50 = 0. Anything less than 0 also counts as 0. Then for each day, starting on March 1, you must add up the degree days as a running total.
We can make this easier for you if you visit Enviro-weather where you can get maps showing the current degree day accumulations. At the homepage, click on a station near you and choose “Current degree days” from the degree day tools section.
Table 1. Prediction of insect pest activity in Michigan from full bloom of trees and shrubs,
or by degree day accumulation (DD50).
Midland, MI Phenological Sequence: Dow gardens 1985-1989
Daniel A. Herms, Dept. of Entomology, OARDC, 1680 Madison Ave., Wooster, OH 44691
Species |
Phenological Event |
Range |
5 Yr Average |
|||||
Date |
DD50 |
Date |
DD50 |
|||||
Silver Maple |
full bloom |
Mar 28-Apr 13 |
7-45 |
4-Apr |
30 |
|||
Eastern Tent Caterpillar |
egg hatch |
Apr 1-19 |
8-67 |
9-Apr |
47 |
|||
Red Maple |
full bloom |
Apr 4-22 |
30-87 |
13-Apr |
67 |
|||
Border Forsythia |
full bloom |
Apr 13-May 3 |
86-106 |
22-Apr |
97 |
|||
White Pine Weevil |
adult emergence |
Apr 18-May 8 |
58-176 |
25-Apr |
110 |
|||
Star Magnolia |
full bloom |
Apr 19-May 7 |
101-130 |
25-Apr |
114 |
|||
Gypsy Moth |
egg hatch |
Apr 21- May 10 |
118-172 |
28-Apr |
148 |
|||
Norway Maple |
full bloom |
Apr 23-May 9 |
119-193 |
29-Apr |
154 |
|||
Weeping Higan Cherry |
full bloom |
Apr 23- May 16 |
120-176 |
1-May |
155 |
|||
'PJM' Rhododendron |
full bloom |
Apr 26- May 13 |
138-224 |
3-May |
172 |
|||
Amelanchier sp. |
full bloom |
Apr 27-May 14 |
141-198 |
3-May |
176 |
|||
'Bradford' Callery Pear |
full bloom |
Apr 28-May 16 |
154-202 |
4-May |
182 |
|||
Hawthorn leafminer |
adult emergence |
Apr 26-May 9 |
126-221 |
4-May |
183 |
|||
European Alder Leafminer |
adult emergence |
May 2-17 |
118-252 |
5-May |
189 |
|||
Birch Leafminer |
adult emergence |
Apr 29- May 9 |
126-221 |
5-May |
189 |
|||
Euonymus Caterpillar |
first larva |
May 4-23 |
196-255 |
9-May |
227 |
|||
Japanese Flowering Cherry |
full bloom |
May 4-20 |
217-248 |
9-May |
227 |
|||
Elm Leafminer |
adult emergence |
May 4-23 |
178-284 |
9-May |
228 |
|||
Eastern Redbud |
full bloom |
May 6-21 |
225-284 |
11-May |
254 |
|||
'Snowdrift' Crabapple |
full bloom |
May 6-22 |
229-276 |
11-May |
255 |
|||
Pine Scale |
egg hatch |
May 7-24 |
255-292 |
13-May |
277 |
|||
Cooley Spruce Gall Adelgid |
egg hatch |
May 7-25 |
255-312 |
13-May |
283 |
|||
Wayfaringtree Viburnum |
full bloom |
May 8-24 |
258-322 |
14-May |
287 |
|||
'Coral Burst' Crabapple |
full bloom |
May 8-24 |
263-322 |
14-May |
296 |
|||
Common Lilac |
full bloom |
May 10-28 |
319-325 |
17-May |
323 |
|||
Lilac Borer |
adult emergence |
May 13-29 |
255-386 |
16-May |
324 |
|||
Lesser Peachtree Borer |
adult emergence |
May 10-29 |
258-465 |
20-May |
362 |
|||
Oystershell Scale |
egg hatch |
May 13-28 |
325-459 |
19-May |
363 |
|||
Doublefile Viburnum |
full bloom |
May 15-Jun 1 |
364-449 |
21-May |
398 |
|||
Vanhoutte Spirea |
full bloom |
May 18-Jun 3 |
411-444 |
25-May |
429 |
|||
'Winter King' Hawthorn |
full bloom |
May 25-Jun 8 |
430-542 |
29-May |
485 |
|||
Pagoda Dogwood |
full bloom |
May 18-Jun 7 |
444-533 |
29-May |
488 |
|||
Bronze Birch Borer |
adult emergence |
May 28-Jun 8 |
513-589 |
2-Jun |
550 |
|||
Black Locust |
full bloom |
May 29-Jun 10 |
521-630 |
3-Jun |
564 |
|||
Peachtree Borer |
adult emergence |
May 25-Jun 18 |
481-744 |
3-Jun |
573 |
|||
Euonymus Scale |
egg hatch |
May 29- Jun10 |
517-678 |
3-Jun |
575 |
|||
Juniper Scale |
egg hatch |
Jun 7-18 |
624-776 |
11-Jun |
697 |
|||
Washington Hawthorn |
full bloom |
Jun 12-27 |
794-908 |
18-Jun |
830 |
|||
Japanese Tree Lilac |
full bloom |
Jun 16-28 |
783-916 |
20-Jun |
860 |
|||
Fletcher Scale |
egg hatch |
Jun 16-28 |
813-1052 |
20-Jun |
884 |
|||
Cottony Maple Scale |
egg hatch |
Jun 17-30 |
833-1062 |
23-Jun |
930 |
|||
Northern Catalpa |
full bloom |
Jun 5-30 |
781-1097 |
24-Jun |
937 |
|||
European Chafer |
First adults |
Jun 20 – 30 |
785 - 1100 |
25 - Jun |
950 |
|||
Greenspire' Littleleaf Linden |
full bloom |
Jun 21-Jul 4 |
896-1092 |
26-Jun |
985 |
|||
European Fruit Lecanium |
egg hatch |
Jun 20- Jul 12 |
861-1407 |
29-Jun |
1073 |
|||
Japanese Beetle |
First adult |
June 27-July 2 |
7-Jul |
|||||
Panicled Goldenraintree |
First bloom |
July 5 |
Dr. Smitley's work is funded by MSU's AgBioResearch.